‘Keep Hudson rail tunnel project on track’

(The following column, "Don't let this opportunity slip away: Keep Hudson rail tunnel project on track," was written by Martin E. Robins and appeared Sept. 23, 2010, in the Newark, N.J., Star Ledger. Robins is director emeritus of the Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center at Rutgers University, was the original project director of Access to the Region's Core from 1994 through 1998.) No one can blame Gov. Chris Christie for his 30-day moratorium on the Access to the Region's Core project, the enormous undertaking to build a new passenger rail tunnel under the Hudson River. But he must do everything in his power not to let this extraordinarily valuable public works project slip away over exaggerated fears of future costs that may never materialize.

Quadrupled ridership growth
on the Northeast Corridor over the past 25 years and the instant response to
Midtown Direct service show New Jersey needs more of the same. The ARC project
would double peak-hour capacity to Manhattan and allow passengers on six
additional New Jersey rail lines to make the trip without changing trains.

A recent Regional Plan
Association report estimated ARC would increase property values in New Jersey
by $18 billion. It would make New Jersey a stronger competitor to Westchester
and Long Island as a residential location for high-earning Manhattan workers.
Additionally, the project would generate 6,000 sorely needed construction jobs.

The project’s immense
long-term positive effects should not be jeopardized by the governor’s
short-term budget concerns. Nor should New Jersey risk losing the $3 billion in
funding the Port Authority has committed and the $3 billion the Federal Transit
Administration is expected to provide. These investments – the result of
arduous bi-state diplomacy and our U.S. senators’ effective advocacy –
represent remarkable opportunities that should not be allowed to slip away.

Recent revelations about
budget overruns and schedule slippage on two major Metropolitan Transportation
Authority tunneling projects have shaken the FTA and prompted worry about ARC’s
$8.7-billion budget. The FTA’s speculation that cost overruns could require New
Jersey to put up more than its planned $2.7-billion share found fertile ground
in the governor’s office, already uneasy about the imminent demise of the
Transportation Trust Fund’s ability to generate capital for routine projects.

The governor’s rhetoric has
raised concerns that he is considering abandoning the project. These concerns
were further fueled by NJ Transit Executive Director Jim Weinstein’s admission
that shifting some of ARC’s state funding to the trust fund had been
"under discussion."

The budget worry centers
not on specifics, but on FTA’s speculative and generalized concern that "too
many uncertainties" are associated with major tunneling projects. FTA
wants another 10 percent or so added to the project’s budget for unforeseen
costs.

The governor must
recognize, first, that NJ Transit is confident in its numbers. Bidding for ARC project
contracts is occurring in an extremely favorable environment for major
construction projects. After a five-month intensive review with FTA staff, NJ
Transit reports the parties agree that the ARC budget has properly accounted
for labor, materials, inflation and other costs. In fact, with inflation
virtually nonexistent, money set aside for rising costs is becoming a budget
cushion. Bids so far have generally come in under engineers’ estimates.
Competition is unusually strong for major tunneling contracts, with as many as
five technical teams qualified to bid. Such competition keeps costs down. Rather
than be abandoned, or even delayed, the project should proceed to take
advantage of these favorable factors.

What is perhaps most
important is Christie’s mind-set. He is quoted as saying that perhaps we can’t
afford this project. ARC supporters would prefer he change his approach to
"We cannot afford not to do this project."

No one could quarrel if the
governor decided to establish his own brand of prudent, sustained stewardship
over ARC’s budget and schedule. He should be thinking positively of improvising
an insurance policy of sorts to cover costs that may or may not materialize.
For example, New Jersey could pledge, on a contingent basis, that during the project’s
out years additional state allocations of federal highway funds or a slice of
an unspecified future Turnpike Authority toll increase would be used to bridge
any funding gap.

The governor should cross
party lines and ask Sens. Frank Lautenberg and Robert Menendez, ardent ARC
advocates and Democrats, to mediate the differences between the FTA and NJ
Transit. Their presence could press the parties to devise a workable solution,
and keep the project from slipping away.